NFL preseason betting 101
The NFL preseason might only be an appetizer for the meat of the football calendar, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities during this time.
when sportsbooks are usually at their weakest
Sports betting has firmly been the “in” movement for the last few years and is only expected to continue its rapid growth as more states legalize the pastime. The NFL is typically the most popular sports league for bettors, which is why it’s only right we share our thoughts on how to capitalize when sportsbooks are usually at their weakest.
So let’s jump right into it. Here are the three best strategies to deploy when betting on the NFL preseason.
NFL preseason betting strategies
#1: Contextual quarterback depth
The NFL is largely driven by quarterbacks. The 13 most expensive contracts in the NFL belong to QBs, and 19 rank inside the top 39.
Quarterbacks have also won every MVP since 2012 and 11 of the last 15 Super Bowl MVPs. Clearly, the man under center takes precedence over the other players on the field.
Most starting quarterbacks either don’t play or are very limited during the preseason. That’s why we included the word “contextual” in the header for this section.
a near All-Star cast
The Cleveland Browns’ quarterback room sans Deshaun Watson of Jameis Winston, Tyler Huntley, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is nowhere near formidable enough to win a Super Bowl, but playing against second-, third-, and fourth-stringers, they’re a near All-Star cast.
The same could be said for the Houston Texans, who employ Davis Mills, Case Keenum, and Tim Boyle. Looking for teams that have either talented young players or reputable veterans in this position can be crucial in determining preseason contests.
#2: Repeat opponents
According to FanDuel sportsbook, the average projected points total during Week 1 of the NFL preseason is 36.88. That’s almost 18% less than the average total for Week 1 of the regular season, 44.88.
Sportsbooks know that the quality of play is usually lower during the preseason. But don’t be dissuaded by the low totals, betting on the under can still be an effective strategy during the NFL preseason—especially in a certain context.
Most NFL teams do not play the same opponents in the preseason that they do in the regular season, though it is not uncommon for that to happen.
Teams that find themselves in this situation will often dumb their game plan down as much as possible during the preseason so that they don’t reveal anything ahead of their regular season encounter. Games like these are a great time to bet the under since the coaches don’t want to show anything they have planned.?
An example of this would be the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles, who are set to face off on Friday and then again in Week 13.
Friday’s game has a projected over/under of 34.5 points.
#3: The hidden gems
Translating prior knowledge on players is our third and final tip to find more success betting on the NFL preseason.
What does this mean? Think back to the college ranks and then to the NFL Draft. Which player(s) flew under the radar? Who impressed you enough to make you believe they will be an impact player at the next level?
finding the diamonds in the rough is where bettors can wield their knowledge
Sportsbooks are going to account for the top talents in the draft. That’s why the Chicago Bears and first-overall pick Caleb Williams were favored over the reigning AFC South champions, the Houston Texans, when odds were first released for the Hall of Fame Game. But finding the diamonds in the rough is where bettors can wield their knowledge.
One player we believe could have a large impact is rookie running back Bucky Irving. He went in the fourth round to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that ranked 31st in rushing yards per game after he racked up 1,593 total yards and 13 touchdowns at Oregon.
The Bucs are +4.5 underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday. Cincy was 26th in rushing defense a year ago and, going back to our first tip, has a fairly uninspiring cast of reserves on offense behind Joe Burrow and Jake Browning.